The idea
In expansions customers upgrade; in slowdowns they delay and compare; in recessions they trade down and drop second SIMs; in recoveries they return slowly. GDP data arrives late and gets revised, so also watch faster signals: daily top-up values, the share of small packs and fuel and exchange rates.
Use it thoughtfully
- Name which stage your market is in each quarter.
- Prepare the next stage's pack mix in advance.
- Keep the brand visible through downturns.
An example
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE: Seeing slowing top-up values, a team prepares value packs and an entry-price guarantee one quarter before a downturn deepens.
A question to try
Which stage of the cycle is your market in, and what is your plan for the next stage?
A useful framework is a starting point, not a guarantee. Effects vary with the audience, product and situation. Use truthful evidence, respect customer choice, and test the result.