The idea
Expected prize payout equals prize value multiplied by the probability of winning. In an illustrative draw, a 1-in-1,000 chance at Rp 1,000,000 has an expected payout of Rp 1,000 per eligible entry. Actual campaign cost can differ because of participation, redemption, administration and service economics. Test response, state genuine odds, and check the rules applicable to the draw.
Use it thoughtfully
- Compare draws and discounts at the same expected cost.
- Check permit rules before launch.
- Show real winners and the real odds.
An example
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE: An Indonesian top-up promotion tests a prize draw against a guaranteed discount of the same expected cost, with the permit and odds displayed.
A question to try
Have you compared a prize draw with a guaranteed reward at the same expected cost?
A useful framework is a starting point, not a guarantee. Effects vary with the audience, product and situation. Use truthful evidence, respect customer choice, and test the result.