Part C1 · Gains, Losses and Reference Points

Prospect Theory and Reference Points

People evaluate gains and losses from a reference point. Losses can weigh more heavily than equivalent gains, but the size of that difference varies by context.

Prospect Theory and Reference Points · Illustrated by Hendra Saputra with AI assistanceSelect the illustration to explore it at a larger size.

The idea

Kahneman and Tversky (1979) described four features: outcomes are judged from a reference point, losses loom larger than gains, sensitivity diminishes as amounts grow, and small probabilities are overweighted. A 2024 meta-analysis of 607 estimates found average loss aversion of about 1.96, with wide variation and smaller figures in risky choices.

Use it thoughtfully

  • Present price changes relative to the last price paid.
  • Avoid taking away benefits customers already have.
  • Split gains, combine losses (see C1.2).

An example

ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE: A price rise from Rp 45,000 to Rp 50,000 feels like a loss even though Rp 50,000 is fair value, so the team pairs it with a clearly bigger benefit.

A question to try

What is your customers' reference price for your main pack, and when did it last change?

A useful framework is a starting point, not a guarantee. Effects vary with the audience, product and situation. Use truthful evidence, respect customer choice, and test the result.

Connect the ideas

Illustration

Use + and − to zoom, scroll to explore, or Escape to close. Please seek permission before reusing an illustration.