Part C2 · Choice Architecture and Evidence

How Strong Is the Evidence?

Behavioural tactics differ in how well the evidence holds up. Grade them as strong, moderate or contested before building a forecast on them.

How Strong Is the Evidence? · Illustrated by Hendra Saputra with AI assistanceSelect the illustration to explore it at a larger size.

The idea

The supplied reference grades defaults and loss aversion as strong, anchoring, numeric decoys and charm pricing as moderate, and general choice-overload claims as contested. These grades guide how much confidence to place in a hypothesis; they do not guarantee a local effect or a fixed size. Menu complexity, customer familiarity and the purchase setting can change the result.

Use it thoughtfully

  • Label tactics in briefs as strong, moderate or contested.
  • Use strong effects as defaults in design.
  • Test moderate and contested tactics before scaling.

An example

ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE: A team prunes a 30-pack menu as a test, not a certainty, because choice overload appears only when options are complex and preferences unclear.

A question to try

Which tactic in your current campaign rests on the weakest evidence?

A useful framework is a starting point, not a guarantee. Effects vary with the audience, product and situation. Use truthful evidence, respect customer choice, and test the result.

Connect the ideas

Illustration

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