Part A3 · Competition and Game Theory

The Price-war Trap

The prisoner's dilemma explains price wars. Cutting looks better for each operator whatever the other does, so both cut and both earn less.

The Price-war Trap · Illustrated by Hendra Saputra with AI assistanceSelect the illustration to explore it at a larger size.

The idea

If B keeps its price, A earns more by cutting; if B cuts, A still earns more by cutting. B reasons the same way. Both cut and earn 70 instead of 100. Economists call this stable bad outcome a Nash equilibrium: no one gains by changing alone. The way out is to remember that operators play this game every month for years.

Use it thoughtfully

  • Expect any visible cut to be matched.
  • Model your plan with the competitor's match included.
  • Look for moves that do not invite a match.

An example

ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE: Two Indonesian operators each cut a popular pack to win share. Within weeks both have matched, and both earn less than before.

A question to try

If you cut price next month, what would your competitors' best response be?

A useful framework is a starting point, not a guarantee. Effects vary with the audience, product and situation. Use truthful evidence, respect customer choice, and test the result.

Connect the ideas

Illustration

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